Tom Blau, Instructor

George Mason University, School of Public Policy

202-685-2261

Arlington campus

Cell 703-928-5322

Office hours: In the two hours before class and by appointment

tomblau1@earthlink.com

Calls welcome.

ITRN 756 National Security & the Global Economy outline, revised 13 Jan 02

Overview

Catalog: “Examines the impact of globalization and changes in the international economic and political systems on concepts of national security. Emphasizes the nexus of economic and security concerns in the post-cold war era, with particular attention to emerging issues, including trade and economic security, proliferation of advanced military technology and control of weapons of mass destruction, international drug trafficking, and defense conversion. The focus is on the implications of changing security requirements on U.S. defense and economic policy and activities. “

The course emphasizes the preparation of two student research papers on some very specific topic approved by the instructor, but that support student long-term professional, policy or scientific interests.  We ask individual students to “brief ” their papers in class presentations.

This course aim is that the paper s, readings and classes help the student to achieve personal professional, scientific or policy goals.  Previous students have used their work here to publish their paper in a leading journal, use their research to establish their expertise in a consulting engagement, and as the basis of their methodology on a statewide project competition, where they finished first.

We will utilize the Internet to help us communicate and collaborate.  Many of the readings are online.  Much of what you cannot get on the Web, such as Harvard Business Review, you should be able to get through the GMU Library, online.

 Readings - BOOKS

1.      Sun Tsu.  The Art of War.  Widely availailable; for example, retrieve at http://www.newstrolls.com/news/dev/kilner/sun_tsu/gilesbare/Outer.html

2.      David S. Alberts and Thomas J. Czerwinski (eds.).  Complexity, Global Politics And National Security.  National Defense University.  Retrieve at http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/complexity/index.html

3.      Col. Lloyd J. Mathews.  Challenging the United States Symmetrically and Asymmetrically: Can America Be Defeated?  Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, 1998.  Retrieve online from U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute.

 Readings - ARTICLES

1.      David André, “Competitive Strategies: An Approach Against Proliferation” in Henry Sokolski (ed.) Fighting Proliferation: New Concerns for the Nineties.  Maxwell AFB: Air University Press, 1996; retrieve at http://www.maxwell.af.mil/au/aul/aupress/b-19/b19frame.htm

2.      Thomas P.M. Barnett, “Life After DoDth or: How the Evernet Changes Everything.”  Proceedings of The U.S. Naval Institute.  May 2000.  48-53.  Retrieve at http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/LifeafterDoDth.htm

3.      Stephen Chan, “The Intelligence of Stupidity: Understanding Failures in Strategic Warning,”  73 American Political Science Review  (March 1979), 171-180.

4.      Clayton M. Christensen and Michael Overdorf.  “Meeting the Challenge of Disruptive Change.”  Harvard Business Review. March-April 2000.  67-76

5.      Francis Fukuyama, “The End of History?” The National Interest 16 (Summer 1989), 3- .

6.      Samuel Huntington, “The Clash of Civilizations,” 72 Foreign Affairs 3 (Summer 1993), 22-28. Retrieve at http://www.alamut.com/subj/economics/misc/clash.html

7.      Robert W. Kagan and William Kristol, “The Present Danger,” The National Interest 59 (Spring 2000), 57-69.

8.      Andrew Krepinevich, “Cavalry to Computer,” The National Interest  37 (Fall 1994), 30-

9.      Carnes Lord, “NSC Reform for the Post Cold War Era,” Orbis (Summer 2000), 433- 450

10.  Carnes Lord, “Crisis (Mis-) Management,” Joint Forces Quarterly XXII (Summer 1999).  72-77.  Retrieve at http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/1322.pdf

11.  Walter A. McDougall, “Response to Walter R. Mead's Jacksonian Tradition” [correspondence], The National Interest 59 (Spring 2000), p. 143.

12.  Walter Russell Mead, “The Jacksonian Tradition,” The National Interest 58 (Winter 1999/2000), 5-30.

13.  Paul J.H. Schoemaker.  “Scenario Planning: A tool for strategic thinking,”  36 Sloan Management Review 2 (Winter 1995),  25-39

14.  F.J. West, Jr.  “War in the Pits: Marine-Futures Trading Game.”  National Defense University Strategic Forum 61.  February 1996.  Retrieve at http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/forum61.html

Class outline and suggested readings

We organize the course into four sections: Fundamental Issues, Disciplines, State-centric Issues and Globalization Issues. 

The following outlines classes (numbered (1) to (15) ), topics within each class (numbered, 1., 2. etc.) and some related sources and suggested reading below each topic.  You decide what to read in the , but items appearing in the above list are required.

A. Fundamental Issues

(1)             Assessing the historical environment

1.      US role in the world

Robert W. Kagan and William Kristol, “The Present Danger,” The National Interest 59 (Spring 2000), 57-69.

Walter A. McDougall, Response to Walter R. Mead's Jacksonian Tradition [correspondence], The National Interest 59 (Spring 2000), p. 143.

Walter Russell Mead, “The Jacksonian Tradition,” The National Interest 58 (Winter 1999/2000), 5-30.

Fareed Zakaria, “The Challenges of American Hegemony,” International Journal (Winter 1998-99), 9-27.

2.      End of history

Francis Fukuyama, “The End of History?” The National Interest. 16 (Summer 1989), 3- .

Francis Fukuyama, “A Reply to My Critics,” The National Interest 18 (Winter 1989/90), p. 21.

3.      Clash of civilizations

Samuel Huntington, “The Clash of Civilizations,” 72 Foreign Affairs 3 (Summer 1993), 22-28. Retrieve at http://www.alamut.com/subj/economics/misc/clash.html

4.      The end of the nation-state

 Kenichi Ohmae, “Putting Global Logic First," Harvard Business Review, (January-February 1995), 119-125.   Also:  Dale C. Copeland,  “Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations,” International Security (Spring 1996); Stephen D. Krasner, “Compromising Westphalia,” International Security (Winter 1995/96); Paul Kennedy.  The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Vintage Books,1989), and other “declinists.”

5.      Peer competition

Patrick E.Tyler, “U.S. Strategy Plan Calls for Insuring No Rivals Develop,” New York Times (8 March 1992), A1 & A14. (Excerpts from and commentary on a contro­versial Defense Planning Guidance draft.).  For a critique from the Third World, see Baobab Press (II, 13), “Secret Planning Document Sees Expansion Of U.S. Military Role Abroad” (1992), retrieve at http://www.africa2000.com/BNDX/BAO213.htm

6.      Diplomacy; extra-territoriality; legal cooperation

Lawrence T. Greenberg, et al.  Information Warfare and International Law.  Washington, DC: NDU INSS, 1997.

7.      Causes of war

A vast literature in political science.  See, for example, John A. Vasquez (ed.), What Do We Know About War? (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2000); Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz, (eds.), The Use of Force, 4th ed. (New York: University Press of America, 1993).

On economic competition among states: Michael E. Porter.  “The Competitive Advantage of Nations.”  Harvard Business Review. March-April 1990.  74-91

8.      Global issues

Francis Fukuyama, “Women and the Evolution of World Politics.”  Foreign Affairs. September/October 1998.  24- 40.

Francis Fukuyama, “Natural Rights and Human History.” The National Interest  64.  Summer 2001. 19-30.

Angel Rabasa and Peter Chalk, Colombian Labyrinth: The Synergy of Drugs and Insurgency and Its Implications for Regional Stability (Santa Monica: RAND, 2001).  Retrieve at http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1339/

Henry S. Rowen and John Weyant.  “Staying Cool About Global Warming.”  The National Interest 57.  Fall 1999.  87-93.

Non-governmental actors: David D. Newsom.  “Foreign Policy and Academia.”  Foreign Policy 101.  Winter 1995-96.  52-67; Albert Wohlstetter.  “Scientists, seers and strategy.”  Foreign Affairs.  April 1963.

Media: Charles C. Moskos, The Media and Military.  Chicago: McCormick Tribune Foundation.  Chicago: McCormick Tribune Foundation, 2000.  (Free, on request)

(2)             Contemporary organizational change

Clayton M. Christensen and Michael Overdorf.  “Meeting the Challenge of Disruptive Change.”  Harvard Business Review. March-April 2000.  67-76

(3)             National and military strategy

1.      Strategy

 Sun Tsu, The Art of War.  Retrieve at , for example, http://www.newstrolls.com/news/dev/kilner/sun_tsu/gilesbare/Outer.html

2.      Leadership

 John Keegan, The Mask of Command (New York: Penguin, 1988).

3.       Technology

 Alan D. Beyerchen, “Clausewitz, Nonlinearity, and the Importance of Imagery,” retrieve at http://www.ndu.edu/ndu/inss/books/complexity/ch07.html.

Alan Beyerchen, "Clausewitz, Nonlinearity, and the Unpredictability of War," 17 International Security 3 (Winter 1992/93), 59-90

Also:  Adapting strategic management:  Paul Bracken, Strategic Planning for National Security: Lessons from Business Experience.  A RAND Note.  Santa Monica: The RAND Corporation.  February 1990

B.  Disciplines

(4)             Intelligence, net assessment, gaming

 David André, “Competitive Strategies: An Approach Against Proliferation” in Henry Sokolski (ed.) Fighting Proliferation: New Concerns for the Nineties.  Maxwell AFB: Air University Press, 1996; retrieve at http://www.maxwell.af.mil/au/aul/aupress/b-19/b19frame.htm

Stephen Chan.  “The Intelligence of Stupidity: Understanding Failures in Strategic Warning.”  73 American Political Science Review  (March 1979), 171-180.

Also:  Angelo Codevilla.  Informing Statecraft: Intelligence for a New Century (New York: The Free Press, 1992; Fritz Ermarth, “Seeing Russia Plain,” The National Interest 55 (Spring 1999), 5-14; Walter Laquer.  A World of Secrets: The Uses and Limits of Intelligence.  New York: Basic Books, 1985; Henry Sokolski, “Fighting Proliferation with Intelligence.”  In Sokolski (ed.) Fighting Proliferation: New Concerns for the Nineties (Maxwell AFB: Air University Press, 1996), 277-298); Robert D. Steele.  “Relevant Information: A New Approach to Collection, Sharing and Analysis.”  Paper presented at the 10th Annual Strategy Conference of the US Army War College.  (Carlisle, PA:  March 1999); Winn L. Taplin, "Six General Principles of Intelligence," 3 International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 4 (Winter 1989), 475-491; Thomas F. Troy, "The 'Correct' Definition of Intelligence," 5 International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 4 (Winter 1991-1992), 433-454.

(5)             Business intelligence and strategic management

1.      Management strategy

Henry Mintzberg, “The Fall and Rise of Strategic Planning,” Harvard Business Review (January-February 1994), 107-114.

Michael E. Porter, “What Is Strategy?” Harvard Business Review (November-December 1996), 62-78.

2.      Business intelligence

John L. Fialka.  War by Other Means: Economic Espionage in America (New York: W.W. Norton, 1997).

3.      Prediction and planning in dynamic environments

 Scenarios:  Paul J.H. Schoemaker.  “Scenario Planning: A tool for strategic thinking.”  36 Sloan Management Review 2.  Winter 1995.  25-39

Simulation and training:  F.J. West, Jr.  “War in the Pits: Marine-Futures Trading Game.”  National Defense University Strategic Forum 61.  February 1996.  Retrieve at http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/forum61.html

 Also:  Scenarios: Peter Schwartz.  The Art of the Long View.  New York: Doubleday, 1991.

(6)             Systems analysis, rational and irrational action

Economics: Milton Friedman. “The Methodology of Positive Economics.”  Essays in Positive Economics.  Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1960.  Widely reprinted.  On realism vs. prediction as standards for scientific models.

“Sociology”: Graham Allison, “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis.” American Political Science Review 63.  September 1969.  689-718; Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision.  2d ed.  (New York: Addison Wesley Longman, 1999); James C Gaston (ed.) Grand Strategy and the Decisionmaking Process (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1992); Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics.  Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976;  James G. March and Johan P. Olson, “Garbage Can Models of Decision-Making in Organizations.”  In March & Roger Weissinger-Baylon.  Ambiguity and Command (Marshfield, MA: Pitman Publishing, 1986), 11-28; Herbert A. Simon.  “Theories of Decision-Making in Economics and Behavioral Science.”  XLIX American Economic Review 3 (June 1959),  252-283; John D. Steinbruner.  The Cybernetic Theory of Decision (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1974); Harold Wilensky.  Organizational Intelligence (New York: Basic Books, 1967).

Systems analysis: Edward S. Quade, “Introduction,” in Quade & W.I. Boucher, System Analysis and Policy Planning: Applications in Defense.  Santa Monica: The RAND Corporation.  R-439-PR (abridged).  (1968).  1-17, and  “When Quantitative Models Are Inadequate.”  324-344;  Albert Wohlstetter, “Analysis and Design of Conflict Systems,” in E.S. Quade, Analysis for Military Decisions. Santa Monica: The RAND Corporation (1964, 1966).  103-148; “Theory and Opposed Systems Design,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution (September 1968), retrieve at http://www.rand.org/publications/classics/wohlstetter/DL16001.1/DL16001.1.html

(7)             Complexity, emergence, nonlinearity

David S. Alberts And Thomas J. Czerwinski (eds.).  Complexity, Global Politics, And National Security.  National Defense University.  Retrieve at http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/complexity/index.html

Also:  Robert Jervis. System Effects. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997; Tom Czerwinski, Coping with the Bounds: Speculations on Nonlinearity in Military Affairs (Washington: INSS, NDU Press, 1998; available online); John H. Holland, Emergence ( Reading, MA: Perseus Books, 1998); Steven Johnson.  Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities and Software (2001).

C.  State-centric Issues

(8)             US institutions for NSDM

1.      Constitution, President & Congress

John Norton Moore, Frederick S. Tipson, Robert F. Turner.  National Security Law.  Durham: Carolina Academic Press, 1990; Joseph M. Bessette and Jeffrey Tulis.  The Presidency in the Constitutional Order. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1981; Carnes Lord, The Presidency and the Management of National Security (New York: Free Press, 1988); Alexander George, Presidential Decision-Making in Foreign Policy  (Boulder: Westview, 1980).

2.      NSC

Carnes Lord, “NSC Reform for the Post Cold War Era,” Orbis (Summer 2000), 433- 450

Stephen A. Cambone, A New Structure for National Security Planning.  Washington, D.C.: CSIS, 1998; Constantine Menges.  Inside the National Security Council.  New York: Simon & Schuster, 1988.

3.      DOD, State, Intelligence

DOD: Thomas P.M. Barnett, “Life After DoDth or: How the Evernet Changes Everything.”  Proceedings of The U.S. Naval Institute.  May 2000.  48-53.  Retrieve at http://www.geocities.com/ResearchTriangle/Thinktank/6926/LifeafterDoDth.htm

State: Richard Burt and Olin Robinson.  Reinventing Diplomacy in the Information Age.  Washington: CSIS, December 1998).  Barry Rubin.  Secrets of State: the State Department and the Struggle Over U.S. Foreign Policy.  New York: Oxford, 1985.

Organizing intelligence:  Bruce D. Berkowitz, "Information Age Intelligence," Foreign Policy 103 (Summer 1996), 35-50; Bruce D Berkowitz and Allan E. Goodman. Best Truth: Intelligence in the Information Age (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2000); Mark Lowenthal, Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 1999); William E. Odom.  Modernizing Intelligence: Structure and Change for the 21st Century  (Fairfax, VA: National Institute for Public Policy, September 1997); Abram N. Shulsky and Gary J. Schmitt, Silent Warfare: Understanding the World of Intelligence (New York: Brassey’s, 2001), 3rd ed.

(9)             The military

 Martin L. Van Creveld.  Command in War, (Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press, 1985); C. Kenneth Allard.  Command, Control, and the Common Defense (New Haven: Yale, 1990), on-line at NDU Press; John Keegan. The Mask of Command (New York: Penguin, 1988); John Lehman, Command of the Seas (New York: Scribners, 1988).

(10)        Planning in U.S. defense

1.      Force structure

Zalmay Khalilzad and David Ochmanek, "Rethinking US Defense Planning," 39 Survival 1 (Spring 1997), 43-64.

2.      Budgets

Paul K. Davis (ed.), New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough (Santa Monica: RAND, 1994);  Daniel Gouré and Jeffrey M. Ranney.  Averting the Defense Train Wreck in the New Millennium.  (Washington, DC: CSIS, 1999); Dov S. Zakheim, “Tough Choices: Toward a True Strategic Review,”  The National Interest (Spring 1997).

3.      Acquisition 

(11)        Mass destruction and its control

1.      Deterrence

Albert Wohlstetter. “The Delicate Balance of Terror.”  37 Foreign Affairs 2 (January 1959), 211-234.   Retrieve at http://www.rand.org/publications/classics/wohlstetter/P1472/P1472.html

2.      Nuclear forces

Commission on Integrated Long-Term Strategy, Fred C. Ikle and Albert Wohlstetter, cochairmen, Discriminate Deterrence: Report of the Commission on Integrated Long-Term Strategy (Washington, D.C.: January 1988); Lawrence Freedman.  The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy.  (New York: St. Martins Press, 1981); Fred Charles Ikle, "Nuclear Strategy: Can There Be a Happy Ending?" Foreign Affairs (Spring 1985); Fred Charles Ikle, “Can Deterrence Last Out the Century?” Foreign Affairs 51 (1973); in Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz, (eds.), The Use of Force, 4th ed. (New York: University Press of America, 1993), see these papers: Robert S. McNamara, "The `No-Cities' Doctrine"; James Schlesinger, "Limited Nuclear Options"; and Harold Brown, "The Countervailing Strategy."

3.      Arms control

Also:  Stephen Cambone, “An Inherent Lesson in Arms Control,” The Washington Quarterly (Spring 2000) , retrieve at http://www.twq.com/spring00/232cambone.pdf;

4.      Missile defense

5.      Proliferation

Henry Sokolski. (ed.) Fighting Proliferation: New Concerns for the Nineties.  (Maxwell AFB: Air University Press, 1996).  Retrieve at http://www.maxwell.af.mil/au/aul/aupress/b-19/b19frame.htm

Henry Sokolski,  Best of Intentions: America’s Campaign Against Strategic Weapons Proliferation,   (Westport: Praeger, 2001).

Albert Wohlstetter, “NATO and the N+1 Country,” Foreign Affairs (1963).

Albert Wohlstetter, et al, Sword From Plowshares: The Military Potential of Civilian Nuclear Energy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1977).

D.  Globalization Issues

(12)           Surprise, big mistakes, terrorism

 Roberta Wohlstetter, “Cuba and Pearl Harbor: Hindsight and Foresight,” 43 Foreign Affairs (July 1965),  691-708.

Col. Lloyd J. Matthews.  Challenging the United States Symmetrically and Asymmetrically: Can America Be Defeated?  Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, 1998; retrieve from U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute.

Also:   Elliot Cohen and John Gooch. Military Misfortunes: The Anatomy of Failure in War.  New York: Vintage, 1990. Martin L. Van Creveld, Command in War (Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press, 1985); Bruce Hoffman, Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction: An Analysis of Trends and Motivations (Santa Monica: RAND, 1999).  Retrieve at http://www.rand.org/hot/newslinks/terrorism.reports.html

(13)        Advanced technology and warfare

1.      Military Technical Revolution - MTR (Revolution in Military Affairs – RMA)

 Andrew J. Bacevich, “Preserving the Well-Bred Horse,” The National Interest 37 (Fall 1994), 43-.

Richard Betts, “The Downside of the Cutting Edge,” The National Interest  45 (Fall 1996), 80-.

Andrew Krepinevich, “Cavalry to Computer,” The National Interest  37 (Fall 1994), 30-

Also:  Andrew Krepinevich, “Military Experimentation: Time to Get Serious,” Naval War College Review (2000); retrieve at http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2001/Winter/Art5-w01.htm ; Robbin F. Laird and Holger H. Mey.  The Revolution in Military Affairs: Allied Perspectives. McNair paper 90. (Washington, D.C.: NDU, INSS, April 1999); RMA Debate Home Page; at http://www.comw.org/rma/

2.      Infowar, netcentric war

Stuart E. Johnson and Martin C. Libicki (eds.).  Dominant Battlespace Knowledge (Washington, DC: NDU, INSS, 1995); Zalmay Khalilzad, John P. White, Andrew W. Marshall, Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare (Santa Monica: RAND, 1999).  Retrieve at http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1016/; Martin Libicki, What Is Information Warfare? Washington, DC: NDU, INSS (August 1995)

3.      Intervention

Andrew J. Bacevich.  “Policing Utopia: The Military Imperatives of Globalization.” The National Interest  56 (Summer 1999); Richard K. Betts, “The Lesser Evil,” The National Interest  64 (Summer 2001), 53-    ; Albert Wohlstetter, “Illusions of Distance,” Foreign Affairs (January 1968).

(14)        Non-defense agencies and homeland defense

Eric V. Larson and John E. Peters, Preparing the U.S. Army for Homeland Security: Concepts, Issues, and Options (Santa Monica: RAND, 2001); retrieve at http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1251/  ; Gilmore Commission, Advisory Panel to Assess Domestic Response Capabilities for Terrorism Involving Weapons of Mass Destruction (November 1, 2001); retrieve at http://www.rand.org/nsrd/terrpanel/terror3execsumprint.pdf

(15)        Crisis management

Carnes Lord, “Crisis Management: A Primer,” IASPS Research Papers in Strategy.  Jerusalem.  Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies, August 1998).  1-22. (Retrieve at http://www.israeleconomy.org/strategic7/crisis.htm

Carnes Lord, “Crisis (Mis-) Management,” Joint Forces Quarterly XXII (Summer 1999).  72-77.  Retrieve at http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/jel/jfq_pubs/1322.pdf

 

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